There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune

Markets transmit information

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"France are final favourites," says Del Piero, in a transparent act of gamesmanship.

Fortunately, this is a testable hypothesis. And based on what the market at Tradesports indicates, this statement is false. Sites like Tradesports and the Iowa Electronic Markets are remarkably adept at accurately predicting events which seem intractable to even the most intelligent experts and most sophisticated polls (such as the 2000 and 2004 United States presidential, congressional and senate elections). When there is enough liquidity, these markets have strong predictive value.

So, what does all this mean? Apparently, there is a 56% probability that the Azzurri will win the match.


1 Responses to “Markets transmit information”

  1. Anonymous Captain Lou 

    I would never have pegged you to be a fan of a bunch of diving pansies. You think you know someone.....

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